Here’s #GiLzTrends for NFL’s Week 5 – time to get statistical & situational as iDo what iDo . . .
• Matthew Stafford is 3-8 SU/2-9 ATS in his career next game after a SU home win. STATLINE; 20 TD/12 INT | AVG margin loss by 7pts
• Matt Ryan is 19-3 SU/18-4 ATS after SU loss in his career. STATLINE; 39 TD/12 INT 102.2 Rating. AVG margin win by 11pts
• once Ravens QB Joe Flacco had a year under his belt as starting QB (since 2009) he’s 14-2 SU next game after UNDER 70.0 QB Rating
• Aaron Rodgers BounceBack stats after UNDER 85.0 rating L4 years; 11-1 SU/10-2 ATS | 28 TD/5 INT | 113.9 rating | AVG victory 14pts
• Aaron Rodgers BounceBack™ statline after a SU loss the L4 years; 14-2 SU/13-3 ATS | 43TD/12 INT | AVG margin of victory is 13pts
• Aaron Rodgers is 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS in games after a bye week (13 TD/4 INT) w/average margin of victory by 12pts
• since Jay Cutler became full time starter in 2007, he’s 9-1 SU/9-1 ATS in games after a 3+ turnover game (6-1 SU/6-1 ATS w/Bears)
**** GiLz Best ATS and/or TOTAL trends per matchup for Week 5 ****
• dating back to last year, Seahawks are 11-1 SU/10-2 ATS with their L12 games
• UNDER is 8-2 @ Indianapolis since the Andrew Luck era began.
• since the Stafford (2009) era began, the Lions are 0-6 ATS next game after scoring 40+ points / 1-10 ATS after scoring 30+ points
• UNDER is 4-1 after a bye since Aaron Rodgers became Packers starting QB (2008) / UNDER is 6-1 the L3 years -vs- their division (NFC North)
• OVER is 11-3 the L14 road games played by Patriots / OVER is 44-18-2 over the L5 years played by Patriots.
• since Marvin Lewis has been Head Coach of the Bengals (2003) he’s 13-26 SU/11-26-2 ATS in the month of October.
• UNDER is 8-0 the L2 years in October for the Dolphins.
• Ravens are 1-5 ATS their L6 road games.
• • not focusing too much on trends on this one as I believe this one will come down to the final 2 minutes… I think this will be one of the most entertaining games this week.
• +DOGS are 14-3 ATS their L17 head-to-head meetings – Eagles are the +DOG this week.
• Titans are 1-7-1 ATS L9 after they put up 30+ points previous game.
• Titans are 7-2 (1H) ATS L9
• • I don’t apply any trends to a newly coach team after only 4 games under Andy Reid’s belt (insert big belt joke here) and not being in the same division.
• Rams are 1-6 ATS their L7 home games / OVER is 6-1 in those L7 home games.
• Jags are the Jags… no trends needed here.
• Panthers are 6-1 (1H) ATS their L7 games / UNDER is 6-1 (1H) in those L7 games
• • I don’t apply any trends to newly coach team after only 4 games and not being in the same division
• since Jason Garrett took over the Head Coach position in 2010 the Cowboys are 4-13 ATS @ home.
• • too hard to roll up any trends with these Broncos and the pace their playing at but everything points to the OVER w/the Broncos covering.
• 49ers are 3-11-1 ATS in the Jim Harbaugh era in their next game after a 2TD (14+) or more margin of victory – they last beat the Rams by 24
• Texans are 3-9 (1H) ATS their L12 games.
• +DOGS are 8-0 ATS the last 4 years (L8 games) when these divisional foes meet. Raiders are the +DOG tonight.
I always wait till 1/4 of the season is underway in all 3 of my sports (MLB, CBB, NFL) before I start letting my trends hit the page. With Football you might find some common ones else where regarding ATS – but you’ll find when everyone is looking @ ATS for that game, I’m looking @ ATS for the 1st Half and therefore dig for the 1H trends. Same goes for CBB – you should remember last year the tear we went on with the tracking of CBB 1st Half studs.
Anyways – I am prepared to deliver a blog like this every Sunday morning a couple hours before kickoff. It’ll have my top player statistical angles & situational trends as well with one of MY favorite trends for each team in each individual game.