#GiLzMLB ((07.20.13))

((07.19.13)) RECAP  =  3-2  @  +1.40 unit$


• Rangers -1  (+135)  =  [1U]
• SF/ARI O7  (-120)  =  [1U]
• HOU/SEA U8  (-105)  =  [1U]
• Tigers -RL  (+110)  =  [1U]
• Marlins ML  (+145)  =  [1U]


= Rangers -1;  Back to the well again with the Rangers.  Same type of pitching matchup like yesterday.  Meaning that SP Gonzales (BAL) & SP Wolf (TEX) were both on the bump in their 7/11 matchup.  O’s/Gonzales came out the 3-1 winner.  Bats were quiet today @ Arlington.  Nelson Cruz should be back in the lineup tomorrow for the Rangers.  Nothing more in this game expect GiLz going back to the well, with +30 cents of value on the -1 play.  I dig it.


= SF/ARI O7;  Knowing when to make a change, rather, adjust your style of play, is a big key in Sports Betting, definitely in Baseball with it being such a long grind.  That said, with a prime spot for a Matt Cain BounceBack, I’m not backing it.  Instead, I’m going with the OVER and expecting Cain to give up a couple and Miley giving up up a few.  HP umpire Mike DiMuro is one of my circled umps for this 2nd half; circled umps are the umps I’m going to be playing religiously throughout the 2nd half.  OVER has hit 15 times in Cain’s L20 starts (15-4-1 / 79%).  OVER has also hit 11 times in Cain’s L15 home starts (11-2-2 / 85%).


= HOU/SEA U8;  Another one of my circled umps is HP umpire Bill Miller.  He’s been an UNDER machine historically.  This year he ranks 2nd in UNDERS @ 6-12.  He’s also below his normal walks per game & strikeouts per game, and still UNDERS are hitting consistently.  He’s assigned to call balls & strikes tomorrow against Bedard (HOU) & Iwakuma (SEA)  – Iwakuma is 1-1 -vs- HOU this year.  Last time pitched was last month, going 7 and allowing none earning a win.  This could be the game to get him back with some self confidence going forward… that game last month -vs- the Astros was his best game pitched in his L6 starts.  Bedard has pitched 4 scorless relief innings -vs- the M’s back in April.  He’s been struggling finding the zone lately w/13 walks his last 3 starts.  Miller’s wide, generous zone should help him out.  This play basically relies on HP ump Bill Miller calling balls & strikes.


= Tigers -RL;  Verlander has been dealing, Guthrie has not.  I rarely back Verlander on the -RL… but in this case, it matches up well, and like I mentioned earlier, I’m adjusting to a different path on the bases.  Kauffman Stadium has treated Verlander well throughout his career.  He hasn’t lost there in the L4 years.  I expect the Tigers bats to back up Verlander today in a major way after getting blanked yesterday.  Hunter & Dirks had the Tigers only 2 hits of the game.  Early on in the year the Tigers didn’t rebound so well after getting shutout.  It led to a sluggish series.  Guthrie had a quality start -vs- these Tigers last month, and even if he can get the quality start today, a 2-0 victory would be enough for the runline victory.  I have Verlander in beast mode @ a place he’s done well historically.


= Marlins ML;  Anybody heard of Nate Eovaldi?  He’s quitely been having a solid 2013 campaign since he was assigned a full time starter for the Marlins.  5 straight quality starts; Marlins have won 3 times in his starts, and lost twice… both losses coming by 1, all 3 wins were by 4 more.  Gallardo has had a rough go lately  –  he’s been getting rocked @ home too.  His statline his L6 home starts; 1-4 (1 ND) 6.478 ERA / 1.58 WHIP.  I like the Road +DOG in this one with the better pitch of late -vs- the scrappy Marlins.  Those scrappy Marlins who’ve received a spark in the wood since Stanton came back to the lineup.


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