((07.19.13)) RECAP = 3-2 @ +1.40 unit$
• Rangers -1 (+135) = [1U]
• SF/ARI O7 (-120) = [1U]
• HOU/SEA U8 (-105) = [1U]
• Tigers -RL (+110) = [1U]
• Marlins ML (+145) = [1U]
= Rangers -1; Back to the well again with the Rangers. Same type of pitching matchup like yesterday. Meaning that SP Gonzales (BAL) & SP Wolf (TEX) were both on the bump in their 7/11 matchup. O’s/Gonzales came out the 3-1 winner. Bats were quiet today @ Arlington. Nelson Cruz should be back in the lineup tomorrow for the Rangers. Nothing more in this game expect GiLz going back to the well, with +30 cents of value on the -1 play. I dig it.
= SF/ARI O7; Knowing when to make a change, rather, adjust your style of play, is a big key in Sports Betting, definitely in Baseball with it being such a long grind. That said, with a prime spot for a Matt Cain BounceBack, I’m not backing it. Instead, I’m going with the OVER and expecting Cain to give up a couple and Miley giving up up a few. HP umpire Mike DiMuro is one of my circled umps for this 2nd half; circled umps are the umps I’m going to be playing religiously throughout the 2nd half. OVER has hit 15 times in Cain’s L20 starts (15-4-1 / 79%). OVER has also hit 11 times in Cain’s L15 home starts (11-2-2 / 85%).
= HOU/SEA U8; Another one of my circled umps is HP umpire Bill Miller. He’s been an UNDER machine historically. This year he ranks 2nd in UNDERS @ 6-12. He’s also below his normal walks per game & strikeouts per game, and still UNDERS are hitting consistently. He’s assigned to call balls & strikes tomorrow against Bedard (HOU) & Iwakuma (SEA) – Iwakuma is 1-1 -vs- HOU this year. Last time pitched was last month, going 7 and allowing none earning a win. This could be the game to get him back with some self confidence going forward… that game last month -vs- the Astros was his best game pitched in his L6 starts. Bedard has pitched 4 scorless relief innings -vs- the M’s back in April. He’s been struggling finding the zone lately w/13 walks his last 3 starts. Miller’s wide, generous zone should help him out. This play basically relies on HP ump Bill Miller calling balls & strikes.
= Tigers -RL; Verlander has been dealing, Guthrie has not. I rarely back Verlander on the -RL… but in this case, it matches up well, and like I mentioned earlier, I’m adjusting to a different path on the bases. Kauffman Stadium has treated Verlander well throughout his career. He hasn’t lost there in the L4 years. I expect the Tigers bats to back up Verlander today in a major way after getting blanked yesterday. Hunter & Dirks had the Tigers only 2 hits of the game. Early on in the year the Tigers didn’t rebound so well after getting shutout. It led to a sluggish series. Guthrie had a quality start -vs- these Tigers last month, and even if he can get the quality start today, a 2-0 victory would be enough for the runline victory. I have Verlander in beast mode @ a place he’s done well historically.
= Marlins ML; Anybody heard of Nate Eovaldi? He’s quitely been having a solid 2013 campaign since he was assigned a full time starter for the Marlins. 5 straight quality starts; Marlins have won 3 times in his starts, and lost twice… both losses coming by 1, all 3 wins were by 4 more. Gallardo has had a rough go lately – he’s been getting rocked @ home too. His statline his L6 home starts; 1-4 (1 ND) 6.478 ERA / 1.58 WHIP. I like the Road +DOG in this one with the better pitch of late -vs- the scrappy Marlins. Those scrappy Marlins who’ve received a spark in the wood since Stanton came back to the lineup.