#GiLzMLB ((07.19.13))


• Rays ML  (-122)  =  [1U]
• Cardinals -1  (-125)  =  [1U]
• Rangers -1  (+120)  =  [1U]
• Red Sox ML / Rockies ML  (+185)  =  [1U]
• Dodgers ML  (+140)  =  [1U]

= Rays ML
;  David Price has owned the Blue Jays throughout his career.  12-2 career, 2.28 ERA & 1.06 WHIP.  He’s never lost @ the Rogers Centre ever since he stepped foot on the bump in Toronto / 6-0 in 7 starts.  Price is starting the series @ Toronto after back-to-back complete games.  Something I fade in the past… but both of those complete games were UNDER 100 pitches.  That’s right.  2 consecutive complete games totaling 185 pitches.  In his L3 starts since coming off the DL he’s thrown a total of 255 pitches.  6+days of rest with the break and a fresh arm to back some road chalk.  Esmil Rogers opens up the 2nd Half for the Blue Birds  –  something of an unproven starter this year.  He’s had some quality starts, and far from quality starts.   Won his first 2 starts this year and hasn’t picked up a W his L4 starts.  I’m confident laying some road chalk with the far more quality arm of Price.  Looking for a big 2nd half from Price after the DL stint as well.

= Cardinals -1;  Westbrook -vs- Marquis looks sloppy.  And it very well could be… for the Padres.  SP Jason Marquis has been (what my SABRnerds preach) one of the “luckiest” pitchers who pitched the 1st half.  He is in my Top 5 pitchers to regress this 2nd half, so I might as well start with his first start after the break.  The Cardinals capped off the 1st half holding the best record in Baseball @ 57-36.  Just a little nuggest courtesy of Elias Bureau; the previous 5 times the Cardinals had the best record after 1st half of play, they went on to the World Series.  Solid statistic nugget to with them leading the bigs in Run Differential @ +127.  Next closest is the Red Sox 36 back @ +91.  Cards stack up well throughout the lineup, even without Holliday in the lineup.  The Padres went 3-16 there final 5 series of the first half.  It’s gonna be difficult for this team to come out of the gates streaking in the win column with the lack of talent they have.  That lack of talent caught up to them throughout the month of June.  Marquis will start things off  –  carrying his lifetime 6.49 ERA / 1.59 WHIP @ Busch Stadium.

= Rangers -1;  Derek Holland faced the Orioles a couple weeks back  /  Wei-Yin Chen faced the Rangers a couple weeks back.  Both SP’s picked up a win -vs- each ball club.  Rangers also haven’t lost Holland’s L4 starts -vs- the Orioles.  Rangers kick off the 2nd half @ home, in July, where the heat scorches throughout the Ballpark @ Arlington.  No Hamilton, No Young, and these Rangers are still posting offensive numbers at the tops of the league.  They also back up Holland well when he’s a -FAV  –  they are 36-14 (72%) in Hollands L50 starts as a -FAV overall; they are 29-11 (73%) his L40 as a Home -FAV; they are 24-6 (80%) in Hollands L30 starts in Game 1 of a series as well.  I like the price I’m getting with Holland @ home with the way the Rangers’ bats back him.

= Red Sox ML / Rockies ML;  Trying to spread out my home chalk as best I can here, so decided to LayLay the Red Sox & Rox.  Red Sox have been owned as of late by the Yanks in Boston, but the Yankees are no where near the quality of bats the Red Sox put in their lineup.  They ended the 1st half tops in RUNS, RBI, OPS and BAbip.  Andy Pettite goes for the Yanks, and he’s been struggling of late; the June & July he’s posted an ERA @ 4.95, WHIP @ 1.49  –  he opened up the year beating Boston, but hasn’t seen them since.  Red Sox have won both series played against the Yankees this year and would be surprised if they didn’t take a 3rd.  As for the Rockies… they got Tulo back.  Finally.  This offense wasn’t the same without him.  SP Jorge De La Rosa is more comfortable pitching @ Coors then he is on the road, and his splits show it; 14-4 @ home the L3 years -vs- 8-12 on the road the L3 years.  Rockies are also 38-12 (76%) in De La Rosa’s L50 starts @ Coors.  In my notebook of fades to play is when a pitcher makes his first career start @ Coors Field  –  and that’s what SP Jeff Samardzija will be doing for the Cubs.

= Dodgers ML;  Dodgers ran for Nolasco, got him, and this is the time to show his worth & value  –  2nd half of baseball.  He’ll be starting against a team that knows him well in the NL East while Nolasco was on the Marlins.  The only National who’s got the better of him however is Bryce Harper who’s htiting over .400 in 20AB’s.  Rest of projected lineup; 41-167 (.242 lifetime -vs- Nolasco).  3, 4, 5, Zimmerman/LaRoche/Werth also have combined for 38K’s as well.  The Dodgers ended the 1st half as one of the hottest teams in Baseball.  Spark plug Puig set a fire and the Dodgers have been dancing around it.  They went 16-4 their L20 games played.  Hanley has been back and healthy and plugging away.  Strasburg had one of his worst outings of his career last time out -vs- the Marlins.  Where this is a BounceBack game for an ace  –  I don’t see that quite yet with the up & down year it’s been for Stras.  Stras has beaten Nolasco 4 of their past 5 meetings… so I believe that gives Nolasco a probably chance to be on his A game Friday night.  A righty is something the Dodgers have been drilling during their hot streak; they are 12-3 the L15 times they’ve seen a right hand starter.


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