#GiLzMLB ((07.14.13)) *LPoY*

Largest Play oYear  = as of… ((07.14.13))

 

Well, I’m going to be capping this horrendous 1st Half of the 2013 season with a bang.  Very much looking forward to a couple days off from the bases.  Most know in years past, I turn up in the 2nd Half. I just get better reads which allows more confidence in my gut the 2nd Half more then I do the 1st Half; teams. pitchers. batters. playoff pushes. streaks. umpires. hot weather/ballparks.

So, the bang before the All-Star break is backing Ian Kennedy (BounceBack) and the Arizona Diamondbacks -vs- Wily Peralta (LetDown) and the Milwaukee Brewers.  If I have done well reading any pitcher this year, it’s Ian Kennedy. Same goes for the previous 2 years as well.  I’ve lost one game backing him this year (wood knocked. no jinx) and the rest were landslide victories. Solid reads on my end – but nothing has been solid this month. Or last month. Or the month before.

Wily Peralta is coming off his first ever CG shutout.  Lighter pitch count, not in the 120’s. Had the Reds swinging and missing all night earlier this week. Now, he’ll follow up that CG shutout @ Chase Field. Good, wood, fashion.  All bats point to better road splits for the D’Backs. But even then, the bats are better then the Brewers who rank near the bottom of almost every offensive category the L30 days. No Braun. No Aramis. Segura & Gomez have been the only couple of bright spots. Very weak 5,6,7,8 hitters. If they fall to a 3 or 4 run lead, they don’t have the bats to get back into it. Ian Kennedy made his last home start last outing -vs- the Dodgers… before that he made 7 straight road starts. Kennedy rarely has 2 poor home back-to-back home starts. The suspension is past, another all-star game he won’t pitch in… he may be in a full on beast mode tomorrow.

This isn’t a Big Bang Theory here with such a large play. A winner would be nice momentum going into post all-star break form. Ian Kennedy bouncing back after a 5+ER outing stomps Wily Peralta coming off a CG shutout, in other words, his best game of his young career.

Here’s the data mining I did tonight… check it out:

Pitchers who pitched first CG Shutout within first 3 years as full time starter in their career in the last 5 years (since 2008)

Pitcher; Innings, Earned Runs / Walks+Hits (Decision)
Hyun-Jin Ryu; 7.2, 1 / 7 (ND-W)

Shelby Miller; 5.2, 0 / 5 (ND-L)

AJ Griffin; 5.2, 7 / 11 (ND-L)

Jeff Samardzija; 6.1, 3 / 11 (ND-L)

Derek Holland; 7.1, 4 / 10 (ND-L)

Kyle Kendrick; 5.1, 2 / 11 (W)

Jeremy Guthrie; 6, 1 / 10 (W)

Chris Sale; 7.2, 0 / 6 (W)

Clay Buchholz; 4.2, 1 / 7 (L)

Jon Lester; 5, 3 / 9 (L)

Justin Masterson; 7, 7 / 12 (L)

Brandon Morrow; 4, 2 / 7 (ND-L)

Matt Harrison; 3, 7 / 11 (L)

Hiroki Kuroda; 2.1, 6 / 9 (L)

James Shields; 3.2, 7 / 13 (L)

Edinson Volquez; 7, 2 / 6 (ND-L)

Jered Weaver; 5.1, 6 / 13 (L)

Clayton Kershaw; 4, 4 / 8 (ND-W)

Cole Hamels; 7, 0 / 6 (W)

Adam Wainwright; 6, 4 / 13 (L)

David Price; 6, 2 / 5 (ND-L)

Phillip Humber; 5, 9 / 11 (L)

Luke Hochevar; 5, 6 / 11 (L)

Homer Bailey; 7, 2 / 6 (ND-W)

Jonathan Sanchez; 6, 3 / 5 (ND-L)

Edwin Jackson; 6, 4 / 12 (L)

John Danks; 6, 6 / 11 (W)

Yovani Gallardo; 7, 1 / 8 (W)

Eric Stultz; 5.1, 4 / 8 (L)

CJ Wilson; 7, 5 / 7 (L)

Colby Lewis; 6.2, 2 / 9 (L)

Matt Garza; 5, 4 / 9 (L)

=  6-15 (11 ND) 5.82 ERA / 1.64 WHIP.

=  Teams W/L record when Starting Pitcher is coming off his first CGSO of his career; 9-23

I may be missing a couple pitchers, and if I am then they are no longer in the league, somewhere in the minors, or it was a rare start.

Anyways – with the way I’ve been running these past couple weeks… who knows how this will turn out. That said, if this loses… I would play this situational play 10 times out of 10.

 

• D’Backs -1 @ -111  =  [4U]

 

Here’s the -1 Runline Calculator to use:
http://sportsobjective.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/ML1runcalc.php

 

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