#GiLzMLB ((06.26.13))

Back in my Covers.com days, I had pretty extensive write-ups for my plays.  If it wasn’t a hefty write-up, it was a brief summary the least.  In those write-ups showed the handicapping of each game wagered and the effort put forth in the wager.  When effort is showed over and over mixed with the skill set and add in -some gamblers luck, it’s a formula that has worked for me in the past.

I’m bringing GiLzBlog back.  I do take time with my selections.  Some can look at the next day previewed boxscores from Yahoo or ESPN and play it that way.  Not I.  I dig deep.  And thus far into the year… I’ve dug deep.  Too deep.  And now I’m standing in my own hole.

Onwards…

 

=  *YTD*  @  -12.90 units

 

CURRENT CARD:    (Wed. 6/26)

• Blue Jays ML @ -105  =  [2U]
• Brewers -1 @ +125  =  [2U]
• Astros/Cards *OVER 8.5* @ -110  =  [1U]
• Mariners/Pirates *UNDER 6.5* @ +100  =  [1U]
• Dodgers -1 @ -115  =  [1U]
• Mets *TT OVER ?*  =  [1U]

 

(Rays/Blue Jays)  =  R.A. Dickey has been stellar in BounceBack starts; since 2010 he’s 7-2 (3 ND) 2.50 ERA / 1.17 WHIP his next start after allowing 5+ER his previous start.  He’s been solid the L3 years in day games  –  he’s struggled a bit this year in the day, but he’s facing a Rays team who’s had 13 of their players face Dickey in their career.  Those 13 players have combined to go 15-101 (.149 AVG) off Dickey and only 1 home run, that from Matt Joyce.  Opposing pitcher is Ramon Hernandez who’s been getting pounded by the AL East all year.  Doesn’t help that historically his worst month is the month of June.  It also doesn’t benefit him that HP Umpire Gary Darling is working tomorrow.  In Hernandez’s career with Darling behind home plate, he’s 1-3 (4 GS) with an ERA @ 9.92 and a WHIP @ 1.65  –  horrendous to say the least.  Blue Birds came into the Trop hot.  They’ve cooled the past 2 games.  Hoping tomorrow they break outta the slump mode and get back to the good wood they’ve displayed the last 2 weeks instead of these last 2 games.

(Brewers/Cubs)  =  Yovani Gallardo has been dealing lately.  3 consecutive scoreless quality starts.  You all know that I feast off finding a pitcher who’s historically has had LetDown spots after a scoreless quality start, but Gallardo is beasting, so I won’t be feasting.  I’ve been playing the regression waiting game with Scott Feldman and I’m hoping it cashes tomorrow as it has all year when he faced his divisional foes.  Cubs are 0-4 this year -vs- NL Central when Feldman starts, and they’re 7-3 -vs- everyone else.  All 4 losses have came by the -1.5 runline as well.  Gallardo has favorable splits -vs- the Cubbies since 2010.  Brewers are 8-2 when Gallardo starts -vs- Cubs / 5-1 @ home since 2010 as well.  One of my main factors backing the -1 runline is the bullpens; Brewers have been one of the BEST the L30 days and the Cubs have been one of the WORST the L30 days.  Pens play huge in runlines.

(OTHERS)  =  Both totals are being played based off my favorite O/U umpires due for assignment tomorrow; Tim McClelland (OVER) is @ HOU/STL tomorrow & Bill Miller (UNDER) is @ SEA/PIT tomorrow.  Dodgers -1 is backing Kershaw owning the Giants (1.34  ERA / 0.88 WHIP in 17 starts since 2010) and their bats have came out to play lately + Kemp is back.  Mets TeamTotal play is Just. Fade. Danks. Somehow… Someway… It Pays. #BOOM

 

Let’s win.  Por favor.

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