GiLz #NCAAB ((01.30.13))

GiLz #NCAAB  ((01.30.13))
• New Mexico -1 = [3U]
• Mizz State (1H) +11
• Villanova (1H) +4.5
• WakeForest (1H) +7.5
• Rutgers (1H) +6.5

> ’12-’13 *YTD* = 216-176 (55%) @ +39.95 unit$

New Mexico -1  =  As you all know, it’s my first [3U] play of the year in college hoops, yaddad yadda yadda.  Not trying to pump it up too much.  But it’s a play I obviously like a lot.  I’ve been fading Wyoming since the loss of Luke Martinez and it’s been paying off.  They are a strong home team, but since Martinez’s absence they are 1-2 @ home.  Last outing they got blown out my Air Force.  Other loss was a crushing loss to Boise State.  This time around they face the Lobo’s who are coming off there worst performance in years  –  since Steve Alford has coached there (2007-present).  They shot 25% from the floor and were 3-15 from 3pointers.  They took a beating by 21pts.  They’ve bounced back from 2 losses this year with 2 wins over Top 25 teams; South Dakota State beat them @ The Pit earlier this year then New Mexico bounced back beating then #8 Cincy in Cincy.  They got beat by Saint Louis by 14, then took out UNLV @ The Pit.  Last year, after suffering a 10+point (double digit) loss inside the MWC, they took out Colorado State & Air Force, both by 30+ points.  The last 4 times New Mexico has scored under 50, they came back next came and covered the spread/4-0 in these past 4 situations.  In conference play dating back a couple years to now, New Mexico has been covering ATS 74% of the time (20 covers out of 27/20-7) and they get Wyoming, a strong home team, without their best player.  Since their best player (Luke Martinez) has been out of the lineup, they are 2-4 ATS this year.  During his presence in the lineup, Wyoming was 9-1 ATS.  New Mexico BounceBack + No Luke Martinez for Wyoming = the 3U play.  It played out, as I was hoping that New Mexico would struggle @ San Diego State, and they did, big time.  In what basically is a pick’em game (@ the -1 spread purchased) the historical advantage goes to the Lobos as well, as they’ve won 9 of the last 11 -vs- Wyoming.

 

GiLz 1st Half Trend Plays:

> Villanova 11-1 (1H) ATS L12

> Mizz State 9-2 (1H) ATS L11

> Duke 2-9 (1H) ATS L11

> Cincinnati 3-8 (1H) ATS L11

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