GiLz #NCAAB ((01.22.13))

GiLz #NCAAB  ((01.22.13))
• Louisville -12
• Kansas State +4
• Tulane +14

> ’12-’13 *YTD* = 183-153 (54%) @ +29.70 unit$
> 43-25 [2U] plays

**** GiLzBreakdown ****

> Louisville is a team I have in BounceBack mode after losing their last game and #1 ranking in the country last game out.  This could also be a spot I normally fade a team after coming off big games -vs- UConn & Syracuse then having PITT & GTown on deck.  But I believe Louisville will bounce back, one player in particular will be as well, and that’s Peyon Siva who is coming off his worst performance of the year.  He put up only 3 points, shot 1 of 9, and was very uncharacteristic will the ball (2 TO’s in the final 30sec) and with one of the most talented players in the country on one of the most talented teams in the country, it’s only fitting to play the -12.  The -12 is confidence based off the bounce back and the fact the Louisville stingy D forced 20 turnovers a game (2nd in Nation) and Villanova is averaging 19 turnovers during their 3 game skid.  Surprisingly, Villanova has led the game going into the 2nd half during this 3 game slide  –  so, if that were to happen again for some reason tonight… then look for me to play Louisville (2H) as a possible [2U] play.  Louisville’s average margin of going into 2H L5 games is 5pts, take away their 23pt lead against South Florida, and you got 0.5 margin.  If you recall, last week I hit Louisville 2nd half -vs- UConn, and they still covered full game ATS and the 2nd half as well.  So I’m not gonna say that I’m hoping they come out a bit sluggish… but, if they do, Louisville 2H poundcake.  > Tulane is nothing more then a gut play that they’ll hang around till the last couple minutes of the game.  Memphis is 1-5 ATS this year @ home when being a favorite of -13 or more.  Memphis, however, is quietly holding a 14-3 record with their 3 losses coming against VCU & MINN (early in year tourny/neutral site) and a home loss -vs- Louisville (their last loss) back on Dec. 15th  –  I am really looking forward to the Memphis @ Southern Miss showdown on Feb. 9th  > Kansas State -vs- Kansas.  Self -vs- Weber.  #11 -vs- #3.  8-0 combined conference.  Gonna be a great game  –  KState has been on an 8 game win streak since they were handled by Gonzaga.  Last time they were a +DOG was -vs- Top 5 then Florida @ home and they controlled mosrt part of that game and came out with the victory.  Now, they face the instate rival and another Top 5 team @ home being a +DOG.  I see this being wire-to-wire, fouls shots win it, last second shot could win it, etc… KState has 3 seniors who want to go out with a bang as this will be their biggest home game to end their Wildcat careers.  High intensity play is what you can expect out of McGruder, along with Henriquez and Irving.  Kansas’ all world freshman McLemore has benefited from a lot of solid play @ the confines of Allen Fieldhouse.  Interested to see how the frosh shows up in a huge rival game like this one, led by 2 coaches who hate each other.  Gotta take the home +DOG here in any situation like this.

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