GiLz #NCAAB ((01.13.13))
• Arizona State +9.5 = [2U]
• Maryland +6 = [2U]
• Evansville +4
• Northwestern/Iowa *OVER 131.5*
> ’12-’13 *YTD* = 164-125 (57%) @ +45.25 unit$
> 38-18 [2U] plays
Got a little out of hand yesterday with the 2H plays – tends to happen from time to time if I’m in the man cave @ me casa. 5-7 yesterday, dropping -2.90 units overall. 2-2 on [2U] plays. Very, very rare for me to have that big of a card – 5 2H plays were involved. Reason for the largeness. Anyways – on to today…
ARIZONA STATE +9.5 = I like nothing better then catching this many points -vs- a team coming off a huge win. Not only a huge conference win, but a huge win -vs- an undefeated, Top 5 team in the Nation. I will also admit that I have a teeny, tiny, crush on the SunDevils. Carrick Felix is the best player in the PAC 12 that nobody knows about and freshman Guard Jahii Carson is playing outstanding ball (17PPG). They are in every game start to finish. Excel at rebounding, offensively and defensively, #1 in the PAC 12, and are winners of 3 straight conference games; Oregon State they beat by 10 last game, only have to travel to Eugene with a 3 day break. Oregon still jumping for joy after they destroyed Arizona. This play is strictly situational with Oregon laying this many points after a big win -vs- undefeated Top 5 team in nation.
MARYLAND +6 = This play is similar to the Arizona State play. Situational play with Miami coming off big conference road win at one of the toughest places to play in college basketball, North Carolina. Miami has been a different team since coming home from that Hawaii tourney around Christmas time. They are snails, coached by the infamous snail of coaching. Slow paced, but very disciplined and picks their spots. Spot picking back @ home after a big road win is what I am doing here, too. The Turtles let one get away from them their last game. They took a comfortable lead @ FSU as they were controlling the game… but towards the latter part, they let it slip away. I think a bounce back spot is appropriate for The Turtles today. Quietly, they are 13-2 on the year. Quietly, they are 39th in the nation with 78PPG. Quietly, they are Top 15 in the nation in Rebounds, Assists, and FG%. Maryland losing their conference opener + Miami coming off big Road +DOG win laying 2 buckets = [2U] worthy.
REST OF THE CARD:
> Wichita State has owned the W/L record over the last 4 years against Evansville, 7-1… but Evansville has covered the spread 7 of those 8 times. Evansville is catching 3.5/4 today – they haven’t seen a number as a +DOG like that -vs- the Shockers since 2008. I like Evansville here as they’ve historically covered -vs- Wichita State over the years and they play well -vs- quality teams @ home; 80% of L10 -vs- teams with winning records they’ve covered ATS.
> Northwestern has been without one of their best players/scorers in Drew Crawford for over a month now, and the OVER is 3-2 in those 5 games he’s missed. Before that, the OVER was 4-0. So why go with the OVER missing a key part of the offense? Well the play is more on Iowa snapping out of it’s funk; they’ve scored under 70 3 straight games after scoring OVER 80 in 6 straight games. 5 of their last 6 meetings head to head have gone OVER. I would be “very” confident if Iowa’s best player Marble wasn’t a game-time decision.