GiLz #NCAAB ((01.12.13))

GiLz #NCAAB  ((01.12.13))
• Rutgers (1H) +2 = [2U]
• Dayton +1 = [2U]
• NC State (1H) +2
• FSU/UNC *OVER 152*
• VCU -8
• Minnesota +8
• Ole Miss/Mizzou *OVER 152*

> ’12-’13 *YTD* = 159-118 (57%) @ +48.15 unit$ 
> 36-16 [2U] plays 
> 20-6 RUN L6 days


RUTGERS (1H) +2  = This being my first [2U] play on a 1st Half wager this year, I’m fairly confident for the main reason of being this auto-trend which I uncovered which plays against the Cincinnati Bearcats;  Cincinnati has failed to cover 6 of L7 1H games ATS, they lost 5 of those 7 SU, and they’ve dropped 4 straight ATS.  Tonight they go up against a Rutgers squad who has won back-to-back conference games, defeating St. Johns in a snail pace game, and upsetting PITT @ home.  Rutgers ranks Top 50 in FG% (#35) hitting ,470 of their shots throughout the game.  If they can work that in with the situational play of Cincy coming out sluggish and taking 20min. to finds its groove, I think Rutgers can go into halftime with the lead.  

DAYTON +1  =  So you remember Butlers last game, @ St. Joe’s, where everybody was pretty much backing St. Joe’s through forums and Twitter Land  –  well, I took Brad Stevens & Co. in that one, based off his prep time and how well his teams play on the road.  The Bulldogs took it to St. Joe’s once the 2nd half began, and never looked back, earning it’s first ever Atlantic 10 victory.  Now, they travel to one of the A-10’s premier teams the last some odd years, we’ll say.  I think this is a bad spot for Butler.  Dayton plays real well -vs- good teams.  More importantly, they play real well inside their conference.  7-2 ATS last year after a disappointing season led them to a 1st round exit in the NIT.  They’re 10-5 this year, haven’t dropped back-to-back games, and I believe they want to make a statement that they can hang around in the A-10, even with the additions of Butler & VCU.  These 2 teams haven’t squared off in 10 years.  So they no nothing about each other, and with only 2 days of prep time for both teams… I like the home conference veteran with the oddball +1 line -vs- Brad Steven’s & Co.  Basically, like I mentioned, this is just an overall bad spot for Butler to be in before it’s A-10 home opener -vs- the 2011 A-10 champs, Richmond Spiders.

Rest of the Card:

NC State (1H) is a strict play, like Rutgers but not trend heavy, as Duke comes out slow in the 1st half.  Seems every game the 1H is close (ATS) and then the 2nd half they explode.  Tons & Tons of Wolfpack love today as the undefeated #1 team in the nation is on upset alert  –  I like the 1st half here more.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Duke ended up exploding the 2nd half and winning by ____  –  I will also have my eyes on the 2H TOTAL in this game.

YES, another OVER play with North Carolina.  But this time, it’s betting the fact that Roy Williams’ coached teams in the L15 years have never scored under 60 in 3 straight games.  I will be shocked if they don’t put up OVER 70, or even 80.  They are tops in all offense categories in the nation… and they haven’t played anywhere near that the L2 games.  Now, they did go up against 2 teams who are good @ D and like to control their clock, holding, passing, dribbling, shot clock eye hawking, etc… good thing FSU isn’t quite like that.  OVERS have hit 9 times of the 11 games played this year by FSU.  Also, FSU/UNC last 5 meetings – all hit the OVER.  5 straight.  This was lined up to be a [2U] play but I didn’t have this opening in the 150’s.  So, therefore I made it a play, just not the [2U] variety.

VCU started off the year 3-3… since then, they’ve been on a tear, winning 10 straight, 9 of those ATS.  They have 2 guys in the Top 10, in the nation, in steals.  Guards Briante Weber & Darius Theus are fun to watch.  I had to YouTube most of their games to watch ’em play, but still.  They face St. Bonnies who has dropped 4 straight, most present loss being @ George W. losing by 20+  –  tough way to open A-10 play.  VCU may be new to the A-10, but not playing against A-10 teams as they are 7-1 their last 8 played against A-10 teams.

I would say Minnesota has been one the biggest surprises this year.  Not only record wise and climbing up the national ranks… but when playing away from home they cover.  Only game away from home they did not cover this year was playing Duke in the Bahamas back before Thanksgiving.  Dating back to last year, the Tubby’s Golden Gophers are 13-3 in games played away from Williams Arena  –  including last games demolishing, punishing effort of #12 Illinois.  Well, today they are @ Indiana.  We all know about Indiana.  They are the #1 scoring team in the nation, averaging 87 PPG.  The lowest points they scored @ home this year  =  87.  But what I like here is that Tubby Smith has his team playing well and exceeding expectations heading into Indiana being a +DOG of more then 3 buckets.  Chip on the shoulder type play here…

This game is one of my favorites of today.  Not the wager, but the fact that I’ll be able to watch it (ESPN3) and I haven’t watch Ole Miss this year.  They score, and they score in bunches.  Matched with a Mizzou team who scores in bunches.  Strong trends that I pair up with my statistical breakdowns made this an easy play.  Almost too easy.  Easy enough to make it a [2U] type play… but I don’t like too easy.  So, I made it a regular play.  Also had a heavy lean on Mizzou being a +DOG  –  but I backed off.  Therefore, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they won this outright, even without Bowers playing today.  


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