GiLz #NCAAB ((01.07.13))

*NOTE*  –  my year-to-date record on GiLzBlog -vs- GiLzTwitter will be different, only because I post all plays on Twitter, and only post plays here with write-ups.  So my *YTD* is accurate, no fudging around.  Hope that makes sense.

 

GiLz #NCAAB  ((01.07.13))
• Indiana/Penn State *OVER 138*
• Indiana -15.5
• Notre Dame (1H) +2

’12-’13 *YTD* = 140-113 (55%) @ +34.70 unit$

> 33-15 [2U] plays

 

Before I get into the analysis of today’s games, let me start off by saying… Hello, New Week.  Thank god you’re here.  Last week was the worst week we’ve had in quite sometime.  I can only remember having such a bad luck type of week.  As you know, by rule, I have a “3 excuse per week” limit  –  and I am not going to use one of ’em right now to start the week off… however, 3 [2U] plays last week coulda/woulda/shoulda been wins.  And a couple [1U] plays as well.  It’s all good.  Just a rough start to the new year.  We were treated right November & December.  Jumping in with both feet, no hesitation, no changes, no second guessing.  New Week, New Money.

No [2U] plays today but in case you wondering why I’m liking today:

 

INDIANA -vs- PENN STATE *OVER 138*  /  INDIANA -15.5  
=  
Last game Indiana played -vs- Iowa was their 2nd lowest point total all year and lowest since Nov. 16th when they scored 66 -vs- Georgia.  A big reason for that was the shooting performance by Senior G Jordan Hulls.  He sparks this offense, the #1 scoring offense in the nation, and when he goes 0-10 from the floor (last game) then it can eliminate the 3 ball all around.  They were 4-14 from the floor from long range.  Last season -vs- Penn State he averaged 21PPG in 3 meetings.  2 of those meeitngs went UNDER.  1 went way over, 88-82 @ Penn State.  Penn State is not great offensively.  But as of late, playing @ home, their L3 has averaged to 78 home pts on their floor.  Those 3 were -vs- the likes of Delaware State, New Hampshire, and Duquense.  Gut play here; Penn State does not have great Offense numbers.  Indiana does.  Penn State different @ home then on road (have to find something positive for Penn State).  And of course, as I normally do, I find a situational play to benefit/confidence booster; Indiana scored under 70pts 5 times last year – there average bounce back game PPG was 92, scoring over 100 3 times.  This year, they’ve scored under 70 just once… bounced back scoring 82 -vs- Georgetown.  I look for Penn State having a long night trying to stop the Hoosiers offensively…

NOTRE DAME (1H) +2
= Cincinnati’s L6 games, they’ve gone into the 2nd half trailing 4 of those games.  5 of those games they didn’t cover the 1H spread.  Both teams are Top 50 in the nation in scoring; but games played at Fifth Third Arena as of late are flat out… flat.  L2 played @ Cincy have total under 100 points.  Notre Dame’s first true road game of the year is today, and as the university has a bigger game tonight (BCS Championship) and as they are going for 13 straight wins, they haven’t won on the road in L4 dating back to last year.  This game is 2 hours before BCS kickoff.  Cincy struggled in 1H and are avoiding there first back-to-back-to-back losses @ home in 6 years.  This isn’t a full game bet; only a halftime bet.  I expect for Cincy’s struggles to continue as it takes them 20 minutes to get there game flowing; Notre Dame is efficient from the floor and I expect for them to hold the edge in FG% in the 1st half, resulting in either a close game (covering the +2) or opening up a nice lead going into the 2nd half.

 

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