GiLz #NCAAB ((01.02.13))
• Boise State -5 = [2U]
• UCF/South Florida OVER 123.5 = [2U]
• Santa Clara/San Fran OVER 147 = [2U]
• Davidson +13
• Illinois State +2
’12-’13 *YTD* = 125-97 (56%) @ +42.10 unit$
> 31-9 [2U] plays
BOSIE STATE -5 = Saw this last night @ -5, thought it would jump up come the morning, and it has. Moved to 6 a lot of places. Texas Arlington has been covering the spread this year after taking a straight up loss (6-1) and I believe this trend has no effect in the line… but I do feel that the oddsmakers might have gotten a little lazy with this line. Boise State averages 76 a game. And it hasn’t been a total cupcake type schedule. Texas-Arlington is near dead last in the nation in turnovers (345 of 347) averaging 20 a game. Mix that horrendous stat with Boise State’s offensive ranks in the Top 30 of 3PT% (19th), PPG (30th), FG% (28th) – Texas-Arlington ranks in the bottom tier of the nation in PPG (#308) & FG% (#289). Boise State also ranks 20th in the nation in FG%. The clear advantage here that Texas-Arlington has is Rebounding and FG% defense. So, if Boise State isn’t hitting there shots, then Texas Arlington will stay in this game. If Texas Arlington isn’t hitting there shots, then they can maintain the boards and putbacks come into play. This game is all statistical for me to make it a [2U] play. Nothing situational here…
CENTRAL FLORIDA/SOUTH FLORIDA *OVER 123.5* = You look at all trends at this game, every. single. one. points to the UNDER. Neither team is known for there offensive outputs. UCF is an excellent shooting team, where South Florida really isn’t all there and goes on these rough droughts in game. One thing I like when crunching numbers for overs is a L3 game average, all offensive categories. Everything gelled when putting this together for me to make it a [2U] play (don’t wanna get to in-depth on my breakdown) and both teams are averaging +70 PPG there L3. Both teams L3 -vs- one another were all scored OVER 124. Since my wager and post, the number on this has dropped 1.5 at most places. Looking @ 122. I’m not much of a line movement guy – sometimes, I like the number to move downwards when on an OVER… only concern would be if it’s closer to game time. Those who decide to stay away – no worries. South Florida OVERs can make your stomach, and balls ache.
SANTA CLARA/SAN FRANCISCO *OVER 147* = I was going to hold out on this game until the first set of games cleared, but I got too eager to watch it just sit there. I had this game pegged as of yesterday looking into today. My book opened, no total on it, but saw it across the board @ VegasInsider. Knew it was going to be a matter of time before it hopped on my local shop. It did, and I hopped on as well. I leaned San Fran in this game too, but I am way more intrigued by both offenses crushing this total. Both teams can score, and score often. They both rank in the Top 150 of country in all offensive categories. This is another statistical play, no situations or trends here. Both teams are 70+ PPG for the season; Santa Clara 72 L3 games, San Fran 81 L3 games. A big factor for me too – the last 2 years, 4 meetings, these teams average total 159 PPG -vs- each other. The OVER is 6-2 L8 between these 2 @ Santa Clara.
*NOTE* – as you know, Boise State has dropped to -2.5/-3 pts in the last hour or so. Don’t know why. Assume sharpies are on UTA. GoBroncos.