These will be updated throughout the week…
• Since 2008, Tony Romo is 2-9 SU/0-11 ATS in road games after home game double digit SU/ATS win. (beat WAS 31-19 SU/ATS last week)
• Cam Newton is 2-9 SU in his career after a 3+TD performance. He averages 2 turnovers a game in these 11 situations
• Rams have scored 30+ points 13 times since 2006 (L7 years) – next game has gone UNDER 11 of 13 times / 11-2 UNDER (85%)
• Teams who played Seahawks previous week are now 0-5 SU/0-5 ATS this year, losing on AVG by 25pts. Titans turn this week -vs- 49ers.
• Matthew Stafford is 3-7 SU/3-7 ATS his next game after throwing 3+ TD’s
• Since the Matthew Stafford era began (2009), the Lions are 1-11 ATS next game after scoring 30+ points.
• Tom Brady BounceBack STATLINE next game after UNDER 80.0 Rating L5 years; 17-2 SU/14-5 ATS | 36 TD/6 INT | 105.7 Rating
• Peyton Manning’s STATLINE L10 years in Primetime games; 34-6 SU/31-8-1 ATS | 96 TD/19 INT
• Peyton Manning’s STATLINE L20 Primetime games; 18-2 SU/16-4 ATS | 45 TD/8 INT
• Teams who just played DA BEARS are 0-5 ATS (1H) their following game. Giants are in situation this week / Giants are also 1H sliders (0-4 ATS L4)
• Teams who just played the 0-5 TB Bucs are 5-0 ATS the following week, covering by AVG +14pts / PHI Eagles in situation this week
• This year there’s been 11 games with the public being on 75%+ of the action. RESULTS; 0-11 ATS. As of now SF, NE, ATL @ 75%+ of the spread action this week.
• Since the start of last year, teams heading into their bye week are 6-24 ATS / CHI, TEN, IND, SD, BAL, HOU all have the BYE next week
This will be updated throughout the week - be sure to check back Sunday mornings for finalized blog . . .
• Teams who play Seahawks previous week are 0-4 SU/0-4 ATS following week, losing on average by 22pts. (Colts in situation this week)
• Chargers QB Philip Rivers is 7-3 ATS his L10 Primetime games (Colts visit Chargers this Monday Night/Week 6)
• Bucs’ QB Mike Glennon making 2nd career start on Sunday. Rookies making 2nd career start since 2007 are 12-17 SU/18-11 ATS
• Cardinals will be playing their 13th Primetime game next Thurs. Night in the L9 years – the week before playing a Primetime game they are 4-8 SU/2-9-1 ATS (0-5 ATS L5 situations)
• Once Joe Flacco got a year under his belt as starting QB (since 2009) he’s 16-3 SU/15-4 ATS next game after UNDER 75.0 QB Rating.
• Since 2001, Mike Shanahan’s teams are 9-3 UNDER after a Bye Week.
• WAS/DAL; since 2004, Redskins are 13-3 ATS -vs- Cowboys / UNDER is 7-1 their L8 Primetime games head-to-head.
• BAL/GB; *pick your poison* = Ravens 4-0 ATS L4 @ home, Packers 0-4 ATS L4 on road / Ravens 0-4 OVER L4 @ home, Packers 4-0 OVER L4 on road
• Historically known for playing poor on the road, Lions are 1-11 SU/4-8 ATS since 2006 when playing consecutive road games.
• Rams have scored 30+ points 12 times since 2006 (L7 years) – next game has gone UNDER 11 of 12 times / 11-1 UNDER (92%)
• Tony Romo has 7 career games with 140.0+ QB Rating – his next game, he’s 5-1 SU/5-1 ATS (14 TD / 7 INT) AVG win by 8pts
• AFC West +DOG Show; KC/OAK has had the +DOG cover 11 of L12 / Raiders 7-0 ATS L7 @ Arrowhead.
• Tom Brady BounceBack STATLINE next game after UNDER 80.0 Rating L5 years; 16-2 SU/13-5 ATS | 35 TD/5 INT | 106.1 Rating
• Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick’s next game after a SU loss L10 years; 27-4 SU/22-9 ATS | AVG margin of victory by 14pta
• Historic Series Undefeated +DOGS this week; BUF/CIN (+DOG is 5-0 L5), SEA/TEN (+DOG is 5-0 L5), SD/IND (+DOG is 8-0 L8)
• New York Giants are 1-5 ATS FG & 1H (Full Game & 1st Half) but they are 5-1 ATS 1Q (1st Quarter) this year.
• Detroit Lions are 4-1 ATS 1H (1st Half) this year… but they are 0-4-1 ATS 1Q (1st Quarter) this year.
• 1st Half streakers go head to head this week; Browns 4-0 (1H) ATS L4 & Lions 4-0 (1H) ATS L4
• 2nd Half streakers; Ravens 4-0 (2H) ATS L4 / Browns 3-0 (2H) ATS L3 / Colts 3-0 (2H) ATS L3 / Titans 3-0 (2H) ATS L3
• 1st Quarter losing streakers; PHI 0-4 ATS L4 / DET 0-4-1 ATS L5 / MIA 0-3 ATS L3 / NE 0-3 ATS L3 / PIT 0-3 ATS L3 / WAS 0-3-1 ATS L4
• Winless ATS teams all in action this week; Steelers (0-4), Texans (0-5), Jags (0-5), Giants (are now 1-5 covering -vs- Da Bears)
Here’s #GiLzTrends for NFL’s Week 5 - time to get statistical & situational as iDo what iDo . . .
• Matthew Stafford is 3-8 SU/2-9 ATS in his career next game after a SU home win. STATLINE; 20 TD/12 INT | AVG margin loss by 7pts
• Matt Ryan is 19-3 SU/18-4 ATS after SU loss in his career. STATLINE; 39 TD/12 INT 102.2 Rating. AVG margin win by 11pts
• once Ravens QB Joe Flacco had a year under his belt as starting QB (since 2009) he’s 14-2 SU next game after UNDER 70.0 QB Rating
• Aaron Rodgers BounceBack stats after UNDER 85.0 rating L4 years; 11-1 SU/10-2 ATS | 28 TD/5 INT | 113.9 rating | AVG victory 14pts
• Aaron Rodgers BounceBack™ statline after a SU loss the L4 years; 14-2 SU/13-3 ATS | 43TD/12 INT | AVG margin of victory is 13pts
• Aaron Rodgers is 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS in games after a bye week (13 TD/4 INT) w/average margin of victory by 12pts
• since Jay Cutler became full time starter in 2007, he’s 9-1 SU/9-1 ATS in games after a 3+ turnover game (6-1 SU/6-1 ATS w/Bears)
**** GiLz Best ATS and/or TOTAL trends per matchup for Week 5 ****
• dating back to last year, Seahawks are 11-1 SU/10-2 ATS with their L12 games
• UNDER is 8-2 @ Indianapolis since the Andrew Luck era began.
• since the Stafford (2009) era began, the Lions are 0-6 ATS next game after scoring 40+ points / 1-10 ATS after scoring 30+ points
• UNDER is 4-1 after a bye since Aaron Rodgers became Packers starting QB (2008) / UNDER is 6-1 the L3 years -vs- their division (NFC North)
• OVER is 11-3 the L14 road games played by Patriots / OVER is 44-18-2 over the L5 years played by Patriots.
• since Marvin Lewis has been Head Coach of the Bengals (2003) he’s 13-26 SU/11-26-2 ATS in the month of October.
• UNDER is 8-0 the L2 years in October for the Dolphins.
• Ravens are 1-5 ATS their L6 road games.
• • not focusing too much on trends on this one as I believe this one will come down to the final 2 minutes… I think this will be one of the most entertaining games this week.
• +DOGS are 14-3 ATS their L17 head-to-head meetings - Eagles are the +DOG this week.
• Titans are 1-7-1 ATS L9 after they put up 30+ points previous game.
• Titans are 7-2 (1H) ATS L9
• • I don’t apply any trends to a newly coach team after only 4 games under Andy Reid’s belt (insert big belt joke here) and not being in the same division.
• Rams are 1-6 ATS their L7 home games / OVER is 6-1 in those L7 home games.
• Jags are the Jags… no trends needed here.
• Panthers are 6-1 (1H) ATS their L7 games / UNDER is 6-1 (1H) in those L7 games
• • I don’t apply any trends to newly coach team after only 4 games and not being in the same division
• since Jason Garrett took over the Head Coach position in 2010 the Cowboys are 4-13 ATS @ home.
• • too hard to roll up any trends with these Broncos and the pace their playing at but everything points to the OVER w/the Broncos covering.
• 49ers are 3-11-1 ATS in the Jim Harbaugh era in their next game after a 2TD (14+) or more margin of victory - they last beat the Rams by 24
• Texans are 3-9 (1H) ATS their L12 games.
• +DOGS are 8-0 ATS the last 4 years (L8 games) when these divisional foes meet. Raiders are the +DOG tonight.
I always wait till 1/4 of the season is underway in all 3 of my sports (MLB, CBB, NFL) before I start letting my trends hit the page. With Football you might find some common ones else where regarding ATS - but you’ll find when everyone is looking @ ATS for that game, I’m looking @ ATS for the 1st Half and therefore dig for the 1H trends. Same goes for CBB - you should remember last year the tear we went on with the tracking of CBB 1st Half studs.
Anyways - I am prepared to deliver a blog like this every Sunday morning a couple hours before kickoff. It’ll have my top player statistical angles & situational trends as well with one of MY favorite trends for each team in each individual game.